October 14, 2004
E.C. Predictions
2004 Presidential Electoral College Predictions This is another good site for Electoral College predictions. It takes the polls collected by 2.004k.com and predicts probability of victory for each party.
electoral-vote.com is still pretty good (see sidebar), but all these sites have flaws in that they are giving equal weighting to nonpartisan and partisan polls, and right now, the GOP partisan polls have the advantage - screwy samples, screwy weightings, etc. Many of the polls rely on samples that show the country as 38% Republican, which is ridiculous and not borne out by the turnout figures in previous presidential elections. So they are all weighted wrong. Plus, on top of that, voter registration has significantly favored Democrats, and that's in stone now because most registration deadlines have passed. So I think there needs to be another site that compares all the different polling groups' internals, and weighs the raw numbers appropriately.
Posted by Curt at October 14, 2004 06:00 PM