November 08, 2004

Myths About The 2004 Election


Myths about the 2004 Election

  • The youth vote did not turn out: Wrong. They were 17% of the electorate, similar to other elections, but it was the largest percentage of youths that voted in many many years. Plus, they went to Kerry in huge numbers, much more than they went to Gore. The problem was that turnout increased in other age groups too, and more importantly, Bush increased his margin in most other age groups. There's been a bit of scapegoating against the youth, but the truth is, they tried their damndest to save the election - but the other age groups were just too big, and they got more conservative. The truth is, we let the youth vote down.

  • We lost on values: Right, but it's not as relevant as you'd think. We do lose on the "values" vote, same as we lose on the "God-fearing" vote and the "It's Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve" vote. It's really just because in the right's mind, "values" is a synonym for "I'm voting for Bush". And off course we lost the "I'm voting for Bush" vote. Duh. For many people, this is a branding success rather than a causal relationship. In other words, it is not "Values => Bush" as it is "Values == Bush". Wink wink, nudge nudge. The point is, "values" doesn't mean "values" anymore. Remember that "purity" used to have a positive meaning, too.

  • It was the evangelicals: Actually, Bush's numbers for evangelicals that attend church multiple times a week didn't move all that much. But, he increased his numbers for those who attended church less than once a week, and those who attended church rarely.

  • It was the gay marriage initiatives that did it: Actually, while Bush did increase his share of the vote from 2000 in the gay marriage initiative states, he increased his share of the vote even more in the states that didn't have gay marriage initiatives. While I'm sure they helped, they weren't what decided it.

  • It was the poor working class "values voters" Actually, we increased our numbers with this voting group.

It was really rich people, and suburb-dwelling upper middle class suburbs people that increased in number for Bush. And, Bush did a better job of turning out people that have been long-registered but don't usually vote - partly because that particular group didn't vote enthusiastically for Bush in 2000.

Finally, I've already dealt with the "Kerry was the rightful winner" myth by showing how Bush had more electoral support all along.

Posted by Curt at November 8, 2004 06:33 PM